Nov 13 Market Outlook: Gold Tests Yearly Lows Below $3,900 as PPI Looms

Review: 6 of 8 calls right, 2 half-right

Yesterday's note called gold bearish, with a break of $3,980 opening the way to $3,900. Overnight gold broke both levels, bottoming near $3,853 and now trading around $3,885 — direction and levels both right. The euro, pound, yen, Bitcoin and Ethereum calls also played out, with most support and resistance levels giving way or breaking. The only miss was crude: Brent and WTI both jumped about 3%, smashing through both resistance levels. Yesterday's "rebound but trend still weak" framing underestimated the force of the geopolitical shock. The lesson: for geopolitically sensitive crude, technical resistance loses much of its meaning when headlines hit — a failed level and a wrong direction are two different things, and the review should tell them apart.

Gold: below $3,900, testing the $3,870 yearly low

Spot gold is around $3,885 this morning, roughly $100 below yesterday's levels (about $3,985). In the November 12 New York session it opened near $3,991, peaked at $4,000.73 and closed around $3,937; the Asian session pushed it down to about $3,853 before a modest bounce.

The driver remains the dollar-yield squeeze. The dollar index is near 103.2, its highest since April 2025 — a 19-month high — while the 10-year Treasury yield has pushed to roughly 5.11–5.13% and the 2-year to about 4.87–4.89%. The trigger was this week's hotter-than-expected October CPI plus hawkish Fed commentary: markets now price an 85–90% chance of a 25bp hike at the December 8–9 FOMC meeting, and Goldman Sachs expects another hike early next year. Higher real yields raise the opportunity cost of holding gold; silver is under pressure too, near $50.14.

Technically, gold is sitting on its October 29 low near $3,870, with RSI around 37 — near oversold but with no reversal signal yet. The 20-day and 50-day averages, near $4,035 and $4,165, sit far above price and cap any bounce.

• Support: $3,870 (yearly low area) / $3,853 (overnight low) / $3,820
• Resistance: $3,900 (round number) / $3,937 (yesterday's New York close) / $3,980 / $4,000

Two scenarios:

• Bearish (base case): a hotter-than-expected PPI lifts hike odds further → a break of $3,870 opens $3,820–$3,800.
• Bounce: a soft PPI or a dollar pullback → reclaiming $3,900 opens $3,937–$3,980; until $4,000 is retaken, that would still be a bounce inside a downtrend.

Watch today: US October PPI at 21:30 Beijing time.

EUR/USD: below 1.1065, still bearish

Around 1.1050, after closing November 12 at 1.1095 and breaking yesterday's 1.1065 support in Asia. Dollar strength dominates; the eurozone's second Q3 GDP estimate (18:00 Beijing) is unlikely to change the picture without a surprise. Support 1.1030 / 1.1000; resistance 1.1065 / 1.1095 / 1.1116. Bearish below 1.1116.

GBP/USD: even an in-line GDP could not lift it

Around 1.3230, below yesterday's 1.3267 support and near the next at 1.3231. UK Q3 GDP grew 0.7% quarter-on-quarter, in line with forecasts and the fastest quarterly pace since Q1 2024; year-on-year growth picked up to 1.9%. Services rose 0.9% and September alone grew 0.2%, better than expected — but business investment rose only 0.4%, half the forecast. Sterling still fell with the dollar's advance: in a dollar-driven market, an in-line "good" print is not enough to turn the trend. Support 1.3231 / 1.3200; resistance 1.3267 / 1.3300.

USD/JPY: pressing on 160

Around 159.90, after a November 12 range of 159.48–159.95 and a close of 159.70. Yesterday's first resistance at 159.66 has been cleared and the 160 handle is within reach. The driver is the widening US-Japan yield gap: the 10-year Treasury above 5.1% against a still-unclear Bank of Japan hiking path. Resistance 160.00 / 160.50; support 159.66 / 159.00 / 158.70. Note that 160 is prime territory for verbal intervention from Japanese officials — volatility could spike on a break, and chasing higher carries risk.

Bitcoin: below $72,750, pressing on $70,000

Around $71,100, after closing November 12 near $72,884; yesterday's supports at $73,200 and $72,750 both gave way. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $300 million of outflows on Wednesday, a fifth straight day; liquidations across the market reached about $727 million in 24 hours, and the Fear & Greed Index sits at 28, in "Fear". Support $70,000 / $68,000; resistance $72,750 / $73,200 / $74,500. $70,000 is both a psychological and technical line — losing it opens more downside; a soft PPI and a softer dollar could still leave $71,000–$73,000 range trading in play.

Ethereum: weaker than Bitcoin, $2,000 briefly lost

Around $2,011, after closing November 12 near $2,022 and dipping to about $1,984 intraday — briefly below the $2,000 handle before recovering. Yesterday's supports at $2,050 and $2,020 both broke. Ethereum continues to lag Bitcoin, the usual pattern when falling risk appetite hits smaller-cap assets harder. Support $2,000 / $1,984 / $1,950; resistance $2,020 / $2,050 / $2,083.

Crude: geopolitics trumped a bearish inventory build

Brent January futures settled at $95.82 (+$3.06, +3.3%) and WTI December at $88.74 (+$2.21, +2.6%). Yemen's Houthis claimed attacks on a Saudi East-West pipeline pumping station, a Yanbu facility and an Aramco building in Riyadh; Iran's military said four tankers were hit by explosions in the Strait of Hormuz — Reuters said it could not independently verify the latter claim. The headlines overwhelmed a bearish EIA report: US commercial crude stocks rose about 4.7 million barrels to 414.4 million in the week ended November 6, with gasoline and distillate stocks also building and total petroleum inventories up 11.4 million barrels. Even after the jump, both benchmarks are still down about 2.5% on the week. The EIA's monthly outlook expects Brent near $100 for the rest of 2026. Brent support $94.00 / $92.80 / $91.50, resistance $95.82 / $97.00 / $100; WTI support $87.40 / $86.50 / $86.00, resistance $88.74 / $90.00. With headlines unverified and moves this large, beware a fast give-back if the reports are walked back.

Today's calendar and risks (Beijing time)

• 18:00 Eurozone Q3 GDP second estimate and employment
• 21:30 US October PPI: consensus +0.4% m/m and +6.6% y/y, core +0.3% m/m and +5.0% y/y; September was +1.3% m/m and +6.3% y/y. Hotter → stronger dollar and yields, pressure on gold and crypto; softer → a window for a bounce
• From 22:10 Fed speakers in quick succession: Boston's Collins (22:10), Dallas's Logan (22:40), Governor Bowman (23:50), San Francisco's Daly (01:00 Sat), Vice Chair Jefferson (08:00 Sat); ECB officials Elderson and Schnabel also speak
• Watch out most around 21:30 (PPI) and 22:00–24:00 (Fed speakers), when volatility is likely to cluster

Data as of around 08:50 Beijing time, November 13, 2026. Sources: Orbex, Finnhub, Reuters, XAUAD, ET Now and others.

This analysis is for information only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk; trade with care.