Nov 15 Market Outlook: Gold Posts Worst Week in Months as Rate-Hike Bets Set the Tone

Review: How Last Time's Calls Held Up

One honest note first: the November 14 piece went out on Saturday after Friday's close, so FX, gold and oil had no new prices over the weekend — six of its eight calls cannot be scored yet and will be checked against Monday's open. That is a built-in limit of a Sunday edition, and we state it plainly rather than forcing scores.

Crypto trades through the weekend, so two calls can be scored: Bitcoin fell to about $67,234 on Saturday morning, below the $68,000 support, and Ether to about $1,898, below $1,900. Both bearish calls were right.

One correction: the November 14 piece listed Nvidia's earnings as "Wednesday, November 18, after the close" — the confirmed schedule is Tuesday, November 17, after the US close (about 05:20 Beijing time on Wednesday).

The Week in Review: The Dollar and Yields Ran Everything

• Gold: closed Friday near $3,885, down 4.5% on the week (-4.57% on Finnhub's series), its worst week in about four months; the week's low was $3,852.58 on November 12, a 52-week low.
• Dollar and yields: the dollar index closed Friday around 103.2–103.3, a 19-month high, up about 0.9% on the week — its best week in two months; the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.15%, up roughly 30 basis points on the week.
• Drivers: October CPI beat expectations (+0.4% m/m) and PPI ran at +6.5% y/y, the highest since November 2022; Governor Waller said a 50bp December hike should be considered; markets now price hikes in December, January and March.
• FX: EUR/USD closed near 1.102, almost on its 52-week low; GBP/USD near 1.321, its biggest weekly drop since September; USD/JPY closed near 159.8 after touching 160 twice.
• Crypto: Bitcoin fell 11.4% on the week and Ether 15.3%, both at their lowest since mid-August; spot bitcoin ETFs saw a sixth straight day of outflows, and about $1.6bn of leveraged positions were liquidated in 24 hours.
• Oil: Brent settled at $95.84 and WTI at $88.56, both down about 2.5% on the week, a second straight weekly decline; the IEA pointed to a fourth-quarter global surplus of about 1.7 million barrels per day.

Gold (XAUUSD): $3,870 Is the First Test at Monday's Open

Structure: gold has fallen from its late-October highs, broken below $3,900 and $3,937, and closed near $3,885, still contesting the $3,870–3,900 zone; the 52-week low of $3,852.58 sits just below.

Key drivers: a 19-month-high dollar plus a 5.15% 10-year yield is a double headwind. A December hike is fully priced; the debate is only 25bp versus 50bp. Vice Chair Jefferson said inflation, not jobs, will guide policy, while Boston Fed President Collins favors a gradual pace — the split means any inflation print before the December 8–9 meeting can amplify volatility. The record US government shutdown ended and hopes of a US–Iran deal faded, trimming the geopolitical premium. Central-bank buying and other long-term supports are unchanged but sidelined by the rates story for now.

Key levels: support $3,870 / $3,853 (52-week low) / $3,820; resistance $3,900 / $3,923 (post-PPI high) / $3,937 / $3,986.

Two scenarios: Bearish — Monday's open loses $3,870 and fails to reclaim it, opening $3,853 and then $3,820; the trigger would be a firmer dollar or stronger-than-expected China data. Rebound — holding $3,870 and reclaiming $3,900 invites short covering toward $3,923–3,937; the trigger would be a dollar pullback, dovish remarks from Chair Warsh, or soft US retail sales.

Watch today: China's October industrial production and retail sales, and Fed Chair Warsh's speech (about 01:00 Beijing time on Tuesday).

EUR/USD: Running on Its Yearly Low

Down for a fourth straight session, closing Friday near 1.102, almost touching the 52-week low of 1.10198. A strong dollar plus soft eurozone growth (Q3 GDP +0.4% q/q) press from both sides. Support 1.1020 / 1.1000 / 1.0950; resistance 1.1065 / 1.1095 / 1.1116. A break below 1.1000 opens further downside; reclaiming 1.1065 is needed to ease near-term pressure.

GBP/USD: Worst Week Since September

Closed Friday near 1.321. UK Q3 GDP met expectations (+0.7%) yet sterling still fell — the dollar is calling the shots. Support 1.3200 / 1.3180 / 1.3150; resistance 1.3231 / 1.3267 / 1.3300. Watch UK October CPI on Wednesday, UK October retail sales and Moody's UK review on Friday.

USD/JPY: The Tug-of-War at 160

Closed Friday near 159.8 after touching 160.04 twice and snapping back each time; Japanese officials warned they would respond to excessive moves. Resistance 160.00 / 160.50; support 159.66 / 159.31 / 159.00. About $1.5bn of options expire at 160.00 on Monday, which could amplify the open; a sustained break above 160 would test Tokyo's tolerance.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Below $68,000, a 12-Week Low

Closed Friday near $68,300, then slid to about $67,234 on Saturday morning — down 11.4% on the week, the lowest since mid-August. Drivers: a stronger dollar, higher yields and December hike pricing weigh on risk assets; spot ETF outflows continued; Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's resignation hit tech sentiment. Support $67,500 / $65,000 / $62,000; resistance $68,000 / $70,000 / $71,400. The negative correlation with the dollar still holds: a dollar pullback or steady Nvidia earnings could invite a relief bounce, but below $70,000 the bias stays weak.

Ethereum (ETH/USD): Weaker Than Bitcoin

About $1,898 on Saturday morning, down 15.3% on the week — a bigger drop than Bitcoin, confirming the relative weakness. Support $1,850 / $1,800 / $1,700; resistance $1,950 / $2,000 / $2,020. The bearish view holds until $2,000 is reclaimed; if Bitcoin stabilizes, Ether's rebound is usually the sharper one.

Oil: Surplus Fears Outweigh Geopolitics

Brent settled at $95.84 (+0.02%) and WTI at $88.56 (-0.20%), both down about 2.5% on the week for a second straight weekly decline. The IEA's Friday report pointed to a fourth-quarter global surplus of about 1.7 million barrels per day, with October global supply at 105.4 million barrels per day; US crude output hit a record 14.013 million barrels per day. On geopolitics, President Trump said the US does not need a deal with Iran, and Washington is focused on blockading Iran — shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain, but the market's focus has shifted from shortage to surplus. Key levels: Brent support $94.00 / $92.80 / $91.50, resistance $95.84 / $97.00 / $98.29; WTI support $87.40 / $86.50 / $85.00, resistance $88.74 / $90.00. Reminder: geopolitical headlines can still rewrite technical levels in an instant — Brent's +3.3% single-day jump on November 12 is the precedent, so treat resistance as reference only.

Today's Calendar and Risks (Beijing Time)

• Mon, Nov 16: 10:00 China October industrial production and retail sales; Canada October CPI; Fed Chair Warsh and NY Fed President Williams speak (about 01:00 on Tuesday).
• Tue, Nov 17: 21:30 US October retail sales (expected +0.2% m/m); Nvidia earnings (about 05:20 on Wednesday Beijing time, interim CEO Colette Kress's debut).
• Wed, Nov 18: UK October CPI; FOMC October meeting minutes (03:00 on Thursday Beijing time).
• Thu, Nov 19: Japan October CPI, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index.
• Fri, Nov 20: UK October retail sales, final US November consumer sentiment, Moody's UK review.
• Riskiest windows: Tuesday evening's retail sales plus Wednesday morning's Nvidia earnings, and Thursday morning's FOMC minutes. Before the December 8–9 meeting, any Fed speaker can still reprice hike odds at short notice.

Disclaimer

This analysis is for information only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk. Data as of about 09:00 Beijing time, November 15, 2026; prices are Friday, November 13 closes (crypto as of Saturday morning). Sources: Finnhub, Reuters, FXStreet, CoinDesk, NordFX, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, IEA, CME FedWatch.