Nov 12 Market Outlook: Gold Loses $4,000 as Dollar Hits One-Month High

Review: Yesterday's Rebound Lasted One Day

Of the eight directional calls in yesterday's outlook, seven were right and one was half-right:

• Gold: the rebound arrived as expected — spot gold reached $4,067 in the New York session, right into the $4,065–$4,085 resistance zone — but it failed to hold. In Asian trading it broke below $4,015 and $4,000 support and is now testing $3,980. The resistance call was correct; the support call was not. Post-CPI dollar momentum carried further than expected.
• EUR/USD and GBP/USD: both bearish calls were right; the euro broke below 1.1145 and 1.1118, sterling below 1.3318 and 1.3300. They now trade near 1.1094 and 1.3275.
• USD/JPY: the bullish call was right; the pair broke above 159.00 and is now testing 159.66 near 159.6.
• Bitcoin and Ethereum: both bearish calls were right. Bitcoin held above $73,200 but stayed capped below $74,500; Ethereum held $2,000 but stayed capped below $2,083.
• Oil: both Brent and WTI held their supports ($91.50 and $86.00) and rebounded; Brent settled at $92.76, just short of the $92.80 resistance. The levels worked well.
• One correction: yesterday's note said the EIA weekly report would be released last night at 23:30 Beijing time. It was in fact delayed by the US Veterans Day holiday to 01:00 Beijing time on Friday (noon ET Thursday).

Score: direction 7 right, 1 half-right out of 8. On levels, gold support and euro/sterling supports gave way, the first USD/JPY resistance broke, and the rest broadly held. Lesson: support levels should not be read in isolation in a trending market — they need to be assessed together with the direction of the dollar and yields.

Gold: Below $4,000 — the Rebound Is Over

Spot gold is trading near $3,985 this morning (multiple sources — Orbex, Finnhub, XAUAD — agree on a $3,980–$3,990 range as of about 08:45 Beijing time). In Wednesday's New York session it opened at $4,035, peaked at $4,067 and closed at $4,043; Asian selling then pushed it to an intraday low of $3,969, nearly $100 below the peak. COMEX December futures settled at $4,000.50.

The driver remains the aftershock of Tuesday's hotter-than-expected US CPI: headline +0.4% month-on-month against +0.3% expected, core +0.3% against +0.2%. Markets now price a December Fed hike at roughly 90% or higher, and talk of a 50-basis-point move has entered the debate after Governor Waller's remarks. The dollar index rose to about 102.85, its highest since October 14, and the US 10-year Treasury yield is pressing against 5.00%. A strong dollar plus high real yields is a double headwind for non-yielding gold.

Technically, gold has broken $4,015 and $4,000, confirming yesterday's framing of the bounce as a "rebound within a downtrend" — and that rebound is now over. Support sits at $3,980 (yesterday's third support, now being tested), $3,958 (Orbex intraday S1) and the $3,900 round number. Resistance is at $4,000 (former support, now resistance), $4,012 (intraday pivot) and $4,042 (Wednesday's close); the $4,065–$4,085 zone remains the level bulls must retake to change the structure.

Two scenarios:

• Bearish (dominant): a daily close below $3,980 opens $3,958, and a break there opens the way toward $3,900. Trigger: a stronger dollar or more hawkish Fed commentary.
• Rebound: holding $3,980 with a stabilising candle could lift gold back toward $4,012–$4,042. Only a recovery above $4,085 would turn the structure. Today's UK GDP and US jobless claims are possible catalysts, but the event that can genuinely change direction is Friday's US October PPI at 21:30 Beijing time.

FX: Dollar Dominance — Euro and Sterling Break Down, Yen Nears 160

• EUR/USD near 1.1094, after closing Wednesday at 1.1134 and breaking both 1.1145 and 1.1118 supports. Euro-area Q3 GDP is due at 18:00 Beijing time; a miss would add pressure. Support at 1.1065 and 1.1030; resistance at 1.1116–1.1145 (former support turned resistance) and 1.1189.
• GBP/USD near 1.3275, below the 1.3300 support. Today's main event is UK Q3 GDP at 15:00 Beijing time (consensus +0.7% quarter-on-quarter, previous +0.5%), released just a week after the Bank of England raised rates to 4.00%. A print in line or better could offer temporary support; a miss points to 1.3267 and 1.3231. Resistance at 1.3300 and 1.3329.
• USD/JPY near 159.6, having broken 159.00 and now testing 159.66, with the 160 level close. Japan's October wholesale prices rose 7.1% year-on-year (from 6.8%), so inflation pressure is not easing — but the rate gap still rules, and BoJ board member Toichiro Asada, one of the two dissenters against September's hike to 1.25%, speaks today. Resistance at 159.66 / 160.00 / 160.50; support at 159.00 / 158.70 / 158.44. The 160 level is sensitive for intervention expectations, so volatility may pick up as it approaches.

Crypto: Bitcoin Holds $73,000; Ethereum Still Struggling Above $2,000

• Bitcoin near $74,000, after closing Wednesday near $73,900 in a $73,209–$74,179 range. Spot ETFs recorded a fourth straight day of outflows (about $95 million on Tuesday), and roughly $720 million of leveraged longs were liquidated after the CPI release. Price remains below all major moving averages. Support at $73,200 / $72,750 / $70,000; resistance at $74,500 / $75,000 / $75,600. The Fear & Greed Index reads 26 — Fear.
• Ethereum near $2,061, after closing near $2,054 and holding the $2,000 level, but capped below $2,083. Tuesday's low printed exactly at $2,006. Support at $2,050 / $2,020 / $2,000; resistance at $2,083–$2,100 / $2,126. Ethereum remains the weaker of the two, down about 8% over five sessions versus Bitcoin's roughly 2.6%.

Oil: Geopolitics Overrides the Inventory Build; Brent Retakes $92

Brent settled up 1.39% at $92.76 on Wednesday and WTI up 0.57% at $86.53. Brent briefly fell below $90 during the session, then rebounded sharply after Iran denied it is negotiating with the United States — geopolitical uncertainty remains oil's immediate support. API data showed US crude inventories up about 9 million barrels last week, against expectations of a draw of roughly 0.6 million; the bearish inventory signal was overwhelmed by the geopolitical headline. The official EIA weekly report, delayed by Veterans Day, is due at 01:00 Beijing time on Friday and is the next focus for oil. The EIA's monthly outlook expects Brent to stay near $100 for the rest of the year before easing to a $77 average in Q4 2027; US commercial crude stocks ended October at 410 million barrels, the lowest end-October level since 2014.

Brent support at $91.50 / $90.00; resistance at $92.80 / $94.00. WTI support at $86.00 / $85.00; resistance at $87.40. If the EIA confirms a large build and geopolitical headlines cool, oil risks giving back part of the rebound.

Today's Calendar and Risks (Beijing Time)

• 15:00 — UK Q3 GDP (consensus +0.7%) and September monthly GDP (consensus −0.1%): the day's main event for sterling
• 17:00 — ECB Economic Bulletin; 18:00 — Euro-area Q3 GDP
• 21:30 — US initial jobless claims (consensus ~195,000; previous 189,000)
• 22:00 — Fed's Hammack speaks; 03:30 Friday — ECB President Lagarde speaks; ~07:30 Friday — New York Fed President Williams speaks
• 01:00 Friday — EIA weekly crude inventory report (delayed by Veterans Day)
• Watch most closely: sterling around 15:00 and the dollar around 21:30. Friday's US October PPI at 21:30 is the week's biggest remaining event; today's gold direction will most likely still be set by the dollar and Treasury yields.

Data as of about 08:45 Beijing time, November 12, 2026. Prices sourced from Orbex, Finnhub, Reuters, FXStreet, CoinDesk, the EIA and other public channels, with key levels cross-checked across sources. Where providers differ (for example, some dollar-index readings), this outlook uses the values on which multiple sources agree.

This analysis is for information only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk; trade with caution.