Nov 11 Market Outlook: Gold Rebounds After CPI Sell-Off as Dollar Holds Firm

*Data as of around 19:30 Beijing time, 11 November 2026. Prices are indicative public-market quotes and may differ slightly by broker.*

Market Snapshot

Hotter-than-expected US October CPI has redrawn the week's trading map. Headline CPI rose 0.4% month on month (consensus 0.3%) and core CPI rose 0.3% (consensus 0.2%), sending bets on a December Fed rate hike sharply higher: fed funds futures now price roughly an 85% chance of a 25bp hike, with even a 50bp move appearing in tail pricing. The dollar index gained about 0.5% on Tuesday and held near a two-week high around 102.30 on Wednesday; the 10-year Treasury yield closed Tuesday near 4.99%, briefly topping 5%, and has no fresh quote today with the US bond market closed for Veterans Day.

Overnight trade followed the familiar strong-dollar, weak-risk script: gold steadied after Tuesday's rout, the euro and sterling stayed heavy, the yen pressed toward 159, Bitcoin slipped toward $72,700 before stabilising, and crude bounced off two-month lows as Strait of Hormuz tensions flared again. This is the first edition of MQLFix's daily market outlook; each day we will score the previous day's calls against the levels given here, so the work keeps getting sharper.

| Instrument | Reference | Overnight / intraday move |
|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD spot gold | ~$4,050 | Tue −2.8%, Wed +~0.5% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | ~102.30 | Tue +0.5%, near two-week high |
| US 10-year yield | ~4.99% | Tue +13bp, briefly above 5% |
| EURUSD | ~1.1155 | Tue −0.5%+ |
| GBPUSD | ~1.3335 | Tue −0.75% |
| USDJPY | ~158.9 | Near 159.00, one-month high |
| BTCUSD | ~$73,700 | Overnight low ~$72,700 |
| ETHUSD | ~$2,060 | −2.8% in 24 hours |
| Brent crude | ~$92.3 | +~1.2% rebound |
| WTI crude | ~$86.5 | +~0.8% rebound |

XAUUSD: Oversold Bounce, but the Dollar Still Caps the Upside

Spot gold steadied near $4,050 on Wednesday, trading a roughly $4,027–$4,067 range against a previous close near $4,036 — a gain of about 0.5%. This is a technical bounce after an oversold drop, not yet a trend reversal: on Tuesday gold slid from a high near $4,141 to around $4,014 after the CPI release, a fall of roughly 2.8% and the week's biggest single-day move.

Structure: The daily chart remains in a corrective phase. Gold has slipped below both its 20-day average (~$4,093) and its 50-day average (~$4,233), and the 14-day RSI sits near 44.7 — neutral to soft. The bounce held a rising trendline near $4,015, but until gold reclaims $4,085 the move is best read as a rally inside a downtrend.

Drivers: The main headwind is real rates and the dollar. A 10-year yield near 5%, combined with a repriced December hike, raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has said a larger hike is possible if inflation stays elevated, which keeps pressure on longs. On the other side, haven demand has not vanished: attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the deadlock over Iran's enriched uranium still underpin the metal, and the longer-term central-bank buying story is intact — it is simply taking a back seat to the rates narrative for now.

Key levels: Resistance at $4,065–$4,085 (the intraday high and a prior platform); a break and hold above opens $4,093 (20-day average) and $4,140 (Tuesday's high). Support at $4,015 (trendline and near Tuesday's low); a loss there puts the $4,000 round number in play, then $3,980.

Two scenarios: Bullish — gold holds $4,015 and reclaims $4,085, triggering short-covering toward $4,100–$4,140. Bearish — the dollar extends gains, or Friday's PPI surprises hot again, and a break of $4,015 deepens the correction toward $4,000. Watch Treasury yields and geopolitical headlines today; Friday's PPI is the week's next major checkpoint.

EURUSD: Heavy Under a Firm Dollar

The euro traded near 1.1155 on Wednesday after losing more than 0.5% on Tuesday, giving back most of the week's early gains. Germany's October CPI came in line with expectations and offered no support; the ECB held rates at its 29 October meeting, and rate-differential expectations keep moving in the dollar's favour.

Key levels: Support at 1.1145, then 1.1118 on a break. Resistance at 1.1160 (a cluster of option strikes), then 1.1194. Triggers: A break of 1.1145 with the dollar index holding above 102.50 would likely accelerate the decline; a reclaim of 1.1160 would turn the pair back into a range. Thursday's second estimate of euro-area Q3 GDP is a minor input — the dollar remains the deciding variable.

GBPUSD: Awaiting Thursday's GDP Test

Sterling traded near 1.3335 on Wednesday, down about 0.75% on Tuesday and stabilising just above 1.3300. The Bank of England raised its rate to 4% on 5 November, but that has not reversed sterling's softness — attention has shifted to growth. The first estimate of UK Q3 GDP is due at 15:00 Beijing time on Thursday, with consensus at +0.7% quarter on quarter (previous +0.5%).

Key levels: Support at 1.3318, then the 1.3300 round number. Resistance at 1.3390. Triggers: A soft GDP print would add to sterling's pressure, and a loss of 1.3300 opens further downside; a beat could spark short-covering toward 1.3390. Into the release, sterling is likely to stay heavy and range-bound.

USDJPY: Pressing 159, Overbought but Unchanged in Trend

Dollar-yen traded near 158.9 on Wednesday, close to the 159.00 level and its highest in nearly a month. The pair rose more than 0.5% on Tuesday, driven mainly by the widening US-Japan rate gap. RSI is near 70, so the pair is short-term overbought, but the uptrend is intact.

Key levels: Resistance at 159.00 (round number and option cluster), then 159.66 on a break. Support at 158.44, then 157.70. Triggers: A firm hold above 159.00 opens further upside, though verbal intervention risk from Tokyo and overbought conditions argue for caution; if Treasury yields top out, the pair could give back ground quickly toward 158.44. With the US bond market closed today, moves may be relatively muted.

BTCUSD: Holding $72,500, but the Bounce Lacks Force

Bitcoin traded near $73,700 on Wednesday after dipping to about $72,700 overnight. The hot CPI print and the resulting rate repricing were the direct trigger for the latest leg down: risk assets fell together, with the Nasdaq down 0.74% on Tuesday, and Bitcoin's correlation with US equities is back in focus. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $201 million of net outflows on 9 November, a third straight session of outflows, and institutional flows remain cautious.

Key levels: Support at $72,500–$73,000 (the overnight low zone); a loss there brings the $70,000 psychological level into view. Resistance at $74,500–$75,000, then $75,600–$76,400. Linkages: Bitcoin is trading inversely to the dollar and Treasury yields in the short term; while the dollar keeps rising, a sustained crypto rebound is unlikely. The Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 29 (fear), and sentiment is weak.

ETHUSD: Weaker Than Bitcoin, $2,000 Is the Line in the Sand

Ethereum traded near $2,060 on Wednesday, down about 2.8% in 24 hours and clearly underperforming Bitcoin. US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $185 million of net outflows on 9 November, also a third consecutive session, and the ETH/BTC ratio sits near 0.028, relatively low.

Key levels: Support at $2,006–$2,050, with $2,000 the psychological floor the bulls must defend — a break risks an accelerated slide. Resistance at $2,083–$2,126; reclaiming the $2,100–$2,150 zone is needed to confirm stabilisation. Linkages: Like Bitcoin, Ethereum's path depends heavily on overall risk appetite and the dollar, with little chance of an independent move for now.

Crude Oil: Geopolitical Premium Returns, EIA in Focus Tonight

Brent traded near $92.3 and WTI near $86.5 on Wednesday, both up about 1% from two-month lows. Tuesday had been brutal: Brent settled at $91.49 (−1.2%) and WTI at $86.04 (−0.9%), their lowest since 31 August, after President Trump said the war in Iran was "over", easing supply-disruption fears. The mood flipped on Wednesday as fresh attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz coincided with Iran's security chief saying not a single particle of enriched uranium would leave the country.

Supply and demand: Goldman Sachs recently raised its December Brent forecast to $105 from $90 and WTI to $94 from $81, citing rising risks to global supply. Industry inventory data (API) sent mixed signals, so the market is waiting for tonight's official EIA release for confirmation.

Key levels: Brent support $91.50, resistance $92.80, then $94 on a break. WTI support $86.00, resistance $87.40. Triggers: A large EIA inventory draw plus further Hormuz escalation would extend the rebound; renewed signs of de-escalation would likely see oil give back gains and retest the two-month lows.

Today's Calendar and Risks (Beijing Time)

• 11 Nov (today): US Veterans Day — bond market closed, no major US data; German CPI came in line and is already digested.
• ~23:30, 11 Nov: US EIA weekly crude inventories — the key near-term window for oil volatility.
• 15:00, 12 Nov: UK Q3 GDP, first estimate (consensus +0.7%, previous +0.5%), plus September monthly GDP and India October CPI — the sterling volatility window.
• 21:30, 12 Nov: US initial jobless claims (consensus ~195K, previous 189K).
• 01:00, 13 Nov: US 30-year Treasury auction ($25bn) — watch the bid-to-cover for its effect on long-end yields.
• 21:30, 13 Nov: US October PPI (consensus +0.4%, previous +1.3%), core PPI consensus +0.7% — the week's final inflation checkpoint, likely to set the next direction for gold and the dollar; also due that day are the second estimate of euro-area Q3 GDP and the IEA's monthly Oil Market Report.

Windows to watch most closely: tonight around the EIA release (oil), Thursday afternoon for UK GDP (sterling), and Friday evening for US PPI (gold, the dollar and the broader market).

Disclaimer

This analysis is for information only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk; trade with care. Prices and data are drawn from public market sources as of around 19:30 Beijing time on 11 November 2026; quotes may differ slightly by source and broker.

*Sources: Orbex, XAUUSD Global, Reuters, FXStreet, RoboForex, KuCoin, The Hindu BusinessLine, CME FedWatch, ONS public release calendar.*