# Nov 15 Market Outlook: Gold Posts Worst Week in Months as Rate-Hike Bets Set the Tone Source: https://mqlfix.top/news/market-outlook-2026-11-15 Language: en Published: 2026-11-15T01:02:44.409Z Updated: 2026-11-15T01:02:44.409Z Author: MQLFix Gold ended the week near $3,885, down 4.5% — its worst week in months — as the dollar hit a 19-month high near 103.3 and the 10-year yield closed at 5.15%. A December hike is now fully priced. Crypto slid further over the weekend. Next week: China data, US retail sales, UK CPI, FOMC minutes, Nvidia earnings. ## Review: How Last Time's Calls Held Up One honest note first: the November 14 piece went out on Saturday after Friday's close, so FX, gold and oil had no new prices over the weekend — six of its eight calls cannot be scored yet and will be checked against Monday's open. That is a built-in limit of a Sunday edition, and we state it plainly rather than forcing scores. Crypto trades through the weekend, so two calls can be scored: Bitcoin fell to about $67,234 on Saturday morning, below the $68,000 support, and Ether to about $1,898, below $1,900. Both bearish calls were right. One correction: the November 14 piece listed Nvidia's earnings as "Wednesday, November 18, after the close" — the confirmed schedule is Tuesday, November 17, after the US close (about 05:20 Beijing time on Wednesday). ## The Week in Review: The Dollar and Yields Ran Everything - **Gold:** closed Friday near $3,885, down 4.5% on the week (-4.57% on Finnhub's series), its worst week in about four months; the week's low was $3,852.58 on November 12, a 52-week low. - **Dollar and yields:** the dollar index closed Friday around 103.2–103.3, a 19-month high, up about 0.9% on the week — its best week in two months; the 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.15%, up roughly 30 basis points on the week. - **Drivers:** October CPI beat expectations (+0.4% m/m) and PPI ran at +6.5% y/y, the highest since November 2022; Governor Waller said a 50bp December hike should be considered; markets now price hikes in December, January and March. - **FX:** EUR/USD closed near 1.102, almost on its 52-week low; GBP/USD near 1.321, its biggest weekly drop since September; USD/JPY closed near 159.8 after touching 160 twice. - **Crypto:** Bitcoin fell 11.4% on the week and Ether 15.3%, both at their lowest since mid-August; spot bitcoin ETFs saw a sixth straight day of outflows, and about $1.6bn of leveraged positions were liquidated in 24 hours. - **Oil:** Brent settled at $95.84 and WTI at $88.56, both down about 2.5% on the week, a second straight weekly decline; the IEA pointed to a fourth-quarter global surplus of about 1.7 million barrels per day. ## Gold (XAUUSD): $3,870 Is the First Test at Monday's Open **Structure:** gold has fallen from its late-October highs, broken below $3,900 and $3,937, and closed near $3,885, still contesting the $3,870–3,900 zone; the 52-week low of $3,852.58 sits just below. **Key drivers:** a 19-month-high dollar plus a 5.15% 10-year yield is a double headwind. A December hike is fully priced; the debate is only 25bp versus 50bp. Vice Chair Jefferson said inflation, not jobs, will guide policy, while Boston Fed President Collins favors a gradual pace — the split means any inflation print before the December 8–9 meeting can amplify volatility. The record US government shutdown ended and hopes of a US–Iran deal faded, trimming the geopolitical premium. Central-bank buying and other long-term supports are unchanged but sidelined by the rates story for now. **Key levels:** support $3,870 / $3,853 (52-week low) / $3,820; resistance $3,900 / $3,923 (post-PPI high) / $3,937 / $3,986. **Two scenarios:** Bearish — Monday's open loses $3,870 and fails to reclaim it, opening $3,853 and then $3,820; the trigger would be a firmer dollar or stronger-than-expected China data. Rebound — holding $3,870 and reclaiming $3,900 invites short covering toward $3,923–3,937; the trigger would be a dollar pullback, dovish remarks from Chair Warsh, or soft US retail sales. **Watch today:** China's October industrial production and retail sales, and Fed Chair Warsh's speech (about 01:00 Beijing time on Tuesday). ## EUR/USD: Running on Its Yearly Low Down for a fourth straight session, closing Friday near 1.102, almost touching the 52-week low of 1.10198. A strong dollar plus soft eurozone growth (Q3 GDP +0.4% q/q) press from both sides. Support 1.1020 / 1.1000 / 1.0950; resistance 1.1065 / 1.1095 / 1.1116. A break below 1.1000 opens further downside; reclaiming 1.1065 is needed to ease near-term pressure. ## GBP/USD: Worst Week Since September Closed Friday near 1.321. UK Q3 GDP met expectations (+0.7%) yet sterling still fell — the dollar is calling the shots. Support 1.3200 / 1.3180 / 1.3150; resistance 1.3231 / 1.3267 / 1.3300. Watch UK October CPI on Wednesday, UK October retail sales and Moody's UK review on Friday. ## USD/JPY: The Tug-of-War at 160 Closed Friday near 159.8 after touching 160.04 twice and snapping back each time; Japanese officials warned they would respond to excessive moves. Resistance 160.00 / 160.50; support 159.66 / 159.31 / 159.00. About $1.5bn of options expire at 160.00 on Monday, which could amplify the open; a sustained break above 160 would test Tokyo's tolerance. ## Bitcoin (BTC/USD): Below $68,000, a 12-Week Low Closed Friday near $68,300, then slid to about $67,234 on Saturday morning — down 11.4% on the week, the lowest since mid-August. Drivers: a stronger dollar, higher yields and December hike pricing weigh on risk assets; spot ETF outflows continued; Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's resignation hit tech sentiment. Support $67,500 / $65,000 / $62,000; resistance $68,000 / $70,000 / $71,400. The negative correlation with the dollar still holds: a dollar pullback or steady Nvidia earnings could invite a relief bounce, but below $70,000 the bias stays weak. ## Ethereum (ETH/USD): Weaker Than Bitcoin About $1,898 on Saturday morning, down 15.3% on the week — a bigger drop than Bitcoin, confirming the relative weakness. Support $1,850 / $1,800 / $1,700; resistance $1,950 / $2,000 / $2,020. The bearish view holds until $2,000 is reclaimed; if Bitcoin stabilizes, Ether's rebound is usually the sharper one. ## Oil: Surplus Fears Outweigh Geopolitics Brent settled at $95.84 (+0.02%) and WTI at $88.56 (-0.20%), both down about 2.5% on the week for a second straight weekly decline. The IEA's Friday report pointed to a fourth-quarter global surplus of about 1.7 million barrels per day, with October global supply at 105.4 million barrels per day; US crude output hit a record 14.013 million barrels per day. On geopolitics, President Trump said the US does not need a deal with Iran, and Washington is focused on blockading Iran — shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz remain, but the market's focus has shifted from shortage to surplus. Key levels: Brent support $94.00 / $92.80 / $91.50, resistance $95.84 / $97.00 / $98.29; WTI support $87.40 / $86.50 / $85.00, resistance $88.74 / $90.00. Reminder: geopolitical headlines can still rewrite technical levels in an instant — Brent's +3.3% single-day jump on November 12 is the precedent, so treat resistance as reference only. ## Today's Calendar and Risks (Beijing Time) - **Mon, Nov 16:** 10:00 China October industrial production and retail sales; Canada October CPI; Fed Chair Warsh and NY Fed President Williams speak (about 01:00 on Tuesday). - **Tue, Nov 17:** 21:30 US October retail sales (expected +0.2% m/m); Nvidia earnings (about 05:20 on Wednesday Beijing time, interim CEO Colette Kress's debut). - **Wed, Nov 18:** UK October CPI; FOMC October meeting minutes (03:00 on Thursday Beijing time). - **Thu, Nov 19:** Japan October CPI, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index. - **Fri, Nov 20:** UK October retail sales, final US November consumer sentiment, Moody's UK review. - **Riskiest windows:** Tuesday evening's retail sales plus Wednesday morning's Nvidia earnings, and Thursday morning's FOMC minutes. Before the December 8–9 meeting, any Fed speaker can still reprice hike odds at short notice. ## Disclaimer This analysis is for information only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk. Data as of about 09:00 Beijing time, November 15, 2026; prices are Friday, November 13 closes (crypto as of Saturday morning). Sources: Finnhub, Reuters, FXStreet, CoinDesk, NordFX, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, IEA, CME FedWatch.