# Nov 14 Market Outlook: Gold Holds $3,870 but Posts Steepest Weekly Drop in Months as Dollar Hits 19-Month High

Source: https://mqlfix.top/news/market-outlook-2026-11-14
Language: en
Published: 2026-11-14T00:54:47.207Z
Updated: 2026-11-14T00:59:09.767Z
Author: MQLFix

US October PPI was softer month-on-month but hit a near-four-year high year-on-year; gold spiked then faded to close near $3,889, down about 4.5% on the week. The dollar hit a 19-month high, the 10-year yield topped 5.1%, and a December Fed hike is now fully priced. Next week: US retail sales and the FOMC minutes.

## Review: All Eight Calls Hit — With One Wording Correction

First, a scorecard for yesterday's calls — all eight were right, the best review round since this column started:

- **Gold (bearish, watching whether $3,870 holds): correct.** Gold opened Friday's New York session at $3,879, spiked to $3,923 after the PPI release, then faded to close at $3,889. The $3,870 line was briefly pierced intraday (UTC-day low near $3,868) but held on the close. Resistance at $3,900 and $3,937 was broken intraday and reclaimed by the close, so it remains valid on closing-price terms.
- **Euro and sterling (bearish): correct.** The euro closed at 1.1052, holding support at 1.1030, with resistance at 1.1065 briefly broken intraday before fading; sterling closed near 1.322, breaking below 1.3231 support and approaching 1.3200.
- **USD/JPY (bullish, approaching 160): correct.** It touched 160.04 on Friday, fell back to 159.31 within two minutes, and closed at 159.83. The 160 level was touched but not held, and Japanese officials promptly warned about rapid one-sided moves.
- **Bitcoin and Ethereum (bearish): correct.** Bitcoin broke below $70,000, with an intraday low near $67,500 — its lowest since August — closing near $68,300. Ethereum broke below $2,000, with an intraday low near $1,895 and a close near $1,929, breaking all three support levels and confirming it is weaker than Bitcoin.
- **Crude (geopolitics-driven rebound, volatility rising): correct.** Brent settled at $95.84 (essentially flat) and WTI at $88.56 (-0.2%); the rebound held but did not extend, and resistance at $95.82 proved broadly effective.

One correction is owed: yesterday's piece called $3,870 the "yearly low", which was imprecise — the week's actual low was $3,852.58, set on November 12. $3,870 is only the upper edge of this week's low zone, and from today it will be called "the $3,870 area". Also, the eurozone's Q3 GDP second estimate was confirmed at +0.4% quarter-on-quarter and +1.3% year-on-year, in line with the preliminary reading, with employment flat — no lift for the euro.

The PPI deserves a sentence of its own: the monthly print of +0.3% came in below the +0.4% consensus, with September revised up to +1.4%; but the annual rate of +6.5% is the highest since November 2022, and core PPI is +5.0% year-on-year. The soft monthly number produced a knee-jerk rally in gold; the hot annual number left hike bets untouched — CME FedWatch still prices a December hike at 100%, about 86% for 25bp and 14% for 50bp.

## XAUUSD: $3,870 Held, but the Week Was the Worst in Months

Spot gold is around $3,880–3,890 early on Saturday (data as of 08:50 Beijing time, November 14). It fell about 4.5% on the week, the steepest weekly drop since early June. The daily RSI has fallen to about 37 and price is hugging the lower Bollinger band (near $3,858) — technically at the edge of oversold territory.

The core driver remains the dollar and rates. The dollar index touched 103.30–103.34 on Friday, a 19-month high; the 10-year Treasury yield is around 5.13%–5.15%, its highest since late October. After CPI and PPI both confirmed sticky inflation, the market now treats a hike at the Fed's December 8–9 meeting as a consensus, with only the size in question. Rising real yields are the main cause of gold's correction. On the safe-haven side, Iran-related geopolitical risk is still present, but the IEA's Friday report pointed to a growing global oil surplus, cooling fears of a Middle East supply disruption, so haven buying has not offset the rates pressure.

Key levels: support at $3,870 / $3,853 / $3,820; resistance at $3,900 / $3,923 / $3,937 / $3,986 ($3,986 is former support turned resistance).

- **Bullish scenario:** holding $3,870 and reclaiming $3,900 would open the way for the oversold bounce to extend, first to $3,923 (Friday's PPI spike high), then $3,937.
- **Bearish scenario:** a daily close below $3,870 opens the downside, first to $3,853 (this week's low), then $3,820.
- **Watch today:** markets are closed on Saturday; the focus is weekend geopolitical news and Fed Chair Warsh's speech on Monday. Tuesday's US retail sales are the first data test of next week.

## EURUSD: Downtrend Intact, 1.1030 Is the Short-Term Line

The euro is around 1.1030–1.1050, down for a fourth straight session. Dollar strength and rising Treasury yields remain dominant; the eurozone's Q3 GDP second estimate (+0.4% quarter-on-quarter) met expectations and offered no support, while France contracted 0.1% in Q3, so growth divergence within the bloc persists. Support at 1.1030 / 1.1000, resistance at 1.1065 / 1.1095 / 1.1116. The bearish view stands until 1.1065 is reclaimed; a break below 1.1000 would open the way toward the 1.09 area.

## GBPUSD: Below 1.3231, Waiting for Next Week's UK CPI

Sterling is around 1.321–1.323. UK Q3 GDP grew 0.7%, in line with expectations, but could not stop sterling's slide — a sign the dollar is driving this move. Support at 1.3200 / 1.3180, resistance at 1.3231 / 1.3267 / 1.3300. October UK CPI on Wednesday is sterling's next catalyst; until then it will largely follow the dollar.

## USDJPY: 160 Touched but Not Held, Intervention Risk Rising

The pair is around 159.7–159.9. It touched 160.04 on Friday — above 160 for a second consecutive session — but fell back quickly to close at 159.83. Japanese officials have warned about rapid one-sided moves, so intervention risk above 160 is clearly rising. Resistance at 160.00 / 160.50, support at 159.66 / 159.31 / 159.00. A firm hold above 160.00 with no official response would target 160.50; any escalation in verbal intervention could trigger a fast pullback, first to 159.31 (Friday's sharp dip low).

## BTCUSD: Below $70,000, Lowest Since August

Bitcoin is around $68,700, with a daily close near $68,280 and an intraday low near $67,500 — its lowest since August — and down about 9%–10% on the week. Several forces converged: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's resignation hit tech stocks and risk appetite; US spot Bitcoin ETFs had logged five straight sessions of net outflows totalling about $1.44 billion; and Glassnode data showed stablecoin supply shrinking by $14.2 billion over 30 days, the fastest contraction since June 2022. Support at $68,000 / $67,500 / $65,000, resistance at $70,000 / $71,400 / $72,750. $70,000 has flipped from support to resistance, so the bearish view stands until it is reclaimed; losing $67,500 would point to $65,000.

## ETHUSD: Weaker Than Bitcoin, $1,900 Under Threat

Ethereum is around $1,930, with a daily close near $1,929 and an intraday low near $1,895 — also its lowest since August — and down about 14% on the week. The ETH/BTC ratio is near 0.028, at a low, with flows still favouring Bitcoin. Support at $1,900 / $1,850, resistance at $1,950 / $2,000 / $2,020. $2,000 has turned into resistance; only a hold above $1,900 keeps any stabilisation case alive, and losing it points to $1,850.

## Crude: Rebound Held at the Highs, but Surplus Worries Cap the Upside

Brent settled at $95.84 (essentially flat) and WTI at $88.56 (-0.2%); both fell about 2.5% on the week, a second consecutive weekly decline. Thursday's rebound — driven by President Trump saying the US does not need a deal with Iran — did not extend on Friday: the IEA report pointed to a growing global oil surplus, cooling supply-disruption fears, and OPEC+ output rose by about 2.04 million barrels per day in October to 41.23 million. Support: Brent $94.00 / $92.80, WTI $87.40 / $86.50; resistance: Brent $95.84 / $97.00 / $98.29, WTI $88.74 / $90.00. Geopolitical headlines can still rewrite technical levels at any moment — the lesson crude taught us this week — so every resistance level carries the caveat that geopolitical news can break through it instantly.

## Today's Calendar and Risks

Today is Saturday, major markets are closed, and prices are Friday's closes. Next week's events (all Beijing time):

- **Monday, November 16:** China's October industrial production and retail sales; Fed Chair Warsh speaks (around 01:00 Tuesday Beijing time).
- **Tuesday, November 17, 21:30:** US October retail sales (consensus +0.2% month-on-month, prior +0.8%); UK employment data.
- **Wednesday, November 18:** UK October CPI (around 15:00 Beijing time); FOMC October meeting minutes (03:00 Thursday Beijing time); Nvidia earnings after the close.
- **Thursday, November 19, 21:30:** US initial jobless claims.
- **Friday, November 20:** Japan October CPI (07:30); UK October retail sales.

The riskiest windows: Monday's Asia open (weekend geopolitical news can cause gaps), Tuesday evening's retail sales, and Thursday morning's FOMC minutes. The dollar and yields remain the market's main thread — any soft data point could trigger profit-taking on dollar longs and a bounce in gold and risk assets.

**Disclaimer:** This analysis is for information only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk; trade with care. Data as of 08:50 Beijing time, November 14, 2026, from public sources including Finnhub, Reuters, XAUAD, FXStreet, CoinDesk, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat and the IEA.