# Nov 11 Market Outlook: Gold Rebounds After CPI Sell-Off as Dollar Holds Firm

Source: https://mqlfix.top/news/market-outlook-2026-11-11
Language: en
Published: 2026-11-11T11:41:50.289Z
Updated: 2026-11-11T11:41:50.289Z
Author: MQLFix

Hotter-than-expected US October CPI has fuelled bets on a December Fed rate hike, lifting the dollar and Treasury yields. Gold steadied near $4,050 after Tuesday's sharp sell-off, with $4,015 support and $4,065–$4,085 resistance in focus. Sterling awaits Thursday's UK GDP, Bitcoin defends $72,500, and oil rebounded on

*Data as of around 19:30 Beijing time, 11 November 2026. Prices are indicative public-market quotes and may differ slightly by broker.*

## Market Snapshot

Hotter-than-expected US October CPI has redrawn the week's trading map. Headline CPI rose 0.4% month on month (consensus 0.3%) and core CPI rose 0.3% (consensus 0.2%), sending bets on a December Fed rate hike sharply higher: fed funds futures now price roughly an 85% chance of a 25bp hike, with even a 50bp move appearing in tail pricing. The dollar index gained about 0.5% on Tuesday and held near a two-week high around 102.30 on Wednesday; the 10-year Treasury yield closed Tuesday near 4.99%, briefly topping 5%, and has no fresh quote today with the US bond market closed for Veterans Day.

Overnight trade followed the familiar strong-dollar, weak-risk script: gold steadied after Tuesday's rout, the euro and sterling stayed heavy, the yen pressed toward 159, Bitcoin slipped toward $72,700 before stabilising, and crude bounced off two-month lows as Strait of Hormuz tensions flared again. This is the first edition of MQLFix's daily market outlook; each day we will score the previous day's calls against the levels given here, so the work keeps getting sharper.

| Instrument | Reference | Overnight / intraday move |
|---|---|---|
| XAUUSD spot gold | ~$4,050 | Tue −2.8%, Wed +~0.5% |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | ~102.30 | Tue +0.5%, near two-week high |
| US 10-year yield | ~4.99% | Tue +13bp, briefly above 5% |
| EURUSD | ~1.1155 | Tue −0.5%+ |
| GBPUSD | ~1.3335 | Tue −0.75% |
| USDJPY | ~158.9 | Near 159.00, one-month high |
| BTCUSD | ~$73,700 | Overnight low ~$72,700 |
| ETHUSD | ~$2,060 | −2.8% in 24 hours |
| Brent crude | ~$92.3 | +~1.2% rebound |
| WTI crude | ~$86.5 | +~0.8% rebound |

## XAUUSD: Oversold Bounce, but the Dollar Still Caps the Upside

Spot gold steadied near $4,050 on Wednesday, trading a roughly $4,027–$4,067 range against a previous close near $4,036 — a gain of about 0.5%. This is a technical bounce after an oversold drop, not yet a trend reversal: on Tuesday gold slid from a high near $4,141 to around $4,014 after the CPI release, a fall of roughly 2.8% and the week's biggest single-day move.

**Structure:** The daily chart remains in a corrective phase. Gold has slipped below both its 20-day average (~$4,093) and its 50-day average (~$4,233), and the 14-day RSI sits near 44.7 — neutral to soft. The bounce held a rising trendline near $4,015, but until gold reclaims $4,085 the move is best read as a rally inside a downtrend.

**Drivers:** The main headwind is real rates and the dollar. A 10-year yield near 5%, combined with a repriced December hike, raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Fed Governor Christopher Waller has said a larger hike is possible if inflation stays elevated, which keeps pressure on longs. On the other side, haven demand has not vanished: attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and the deadlock over Iran's enriched uranium still underpin the metal, and the longer-term central-bank buying story is intact — it is simply taking a back seat to the rates narrative for now.

**Key levels:** Resistance at $4,065–$4,085 (the intraday high and a prior platform); a break and hold above opens $4,093 (20-day average) and $4,140 (Tuesday's high). Support at $4,015 (trendline and near Tuesday's low); a loss there puts the $4,000 round number in play, then $3,980.

**Two scenarios:** Bullish — gold holds $4,015 and reclaims $4,085, triggering short-covering toward $4,100–$4,140. Bearish — the dollar extends gains, or Friday's PPI surprises hot again, and a break of $4,015 deepens the correction toward $4,000. Watch Treasury yields and geopolitical headlines today; Friday's PPI is the week's next major checkpoint.

## EURUSD: Heavy Under a Firm Dollar

The euro traded near 1.1155 on Wednesday after losing more than 0.5% on Tuesday, giving back most of the week's early gains. Germany's October CPI came in line with expectations and offered no support; the ECB held rates at its 29 October meeting, and rate-differential expectations keep moving in the dollar's favour.

**Key levels:** Support at 1.1145, then 1.1118 on a break. Resistance at 1.1160 (a cluster of option strikes), then 1.1194. **Triggers:** A break of 1.1145 with the dollar index holding above 102.50 would likely accelerate the decline; a reclaim of 1.1160 would turn the pair back into a range. Thursday's second estimate of euro-area Q3 GDP is a minor input — the dollar remains the deciding variable.

## GBPUSD: Awaiting Thursday's GDP Test

Sterling traded near 1.3335 on Wednesday, down about 0.75% on Tuesday and stabilising just above 1.3300. The Bank of England raised its rate to 4% on 5 November, but that has not reversed sterling's softness — attention has shifted to growth. The first estimate of UK Q3 GDP is due at 15:00 Beijing time on Thursday, with consensus at +0.7% quarter on quarter (previous +0.5%).

**Key levels:** Support at 1.3318, then the 1.3300 round number. Resistance at 1.3390. **Triggers:** A soft GDP print would add to sterling's pressure, and a loss of 1.3300 opens further downside; a beat could spark short-covering toward 1.3390. Into the release, sterling is likely to stay heavy and range-bound.

## USDJPY: Pressing 159, Overbought but Unchanged in Trend

Dollar-yen traded near 158.9 on Wednesday, close to the 159.00 level and its highest in nearly a month. The pair rose more than 0.5% on Tuesday, driven mainly by the widening US-Japan rate gap. RSI is near 70, so the pair is short-term overbought, but the uptrend is intact.

**Key levels:** Resistance at 159.00 (round number and option cluster), then 159.66 on a break. Support at 158.44, then 157.70. **Triggers:** A firm hold above 159.00 opens further upside, though verbal intervention risk from Tokyo and overbought conditions argue for caution; if Treasury yields top out, the pair could give back ground quickly toward 158.44. With the US bond market closed today, moves may be relatively muted.

## BTCUSD: Holding $72,500, but the Bounce Lacks Force

Bitcoin traded near $73,700 on Wednesday after dipping to about $72,700 overnight. The hot CPI print and the resulting rate repricing were the direct trigger for the latest leg down: risk assets fell together, with the Nasdaq down 0.74% on Tuesday, and Bitcoin's correlation with US equities is back in focus. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $201 million of net outflows on 9 November, a third straight session of outflows, and institutional flows remain cautious.

**Key levels:** Support at $72,500–$73,000 (the overnight low zone); a loss there brings the $70,000 psychological level into view. Resistance at $74,500–$75,000, then $75,600–$76,400. **Linkages:** Bitcoin is trading inversely to the dollar and Treasury yields in the short term; while the dollar keeps rising, a sustained crypto rebound is unlikely. The Fear & Greed Index has fallen to 29 (fear), and sentiment is weak.

## ETHUSD: Weaker Than Bitcoin, $2,000 Is the Line in the Sand

Ethereum traded near $2,060 on Wednesday, down about 2.8% in 24 hours and clearly underperforming Bitcoin. US spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $185 million of net outflows on 9 November, also a third consecutive session, and the ETH/BTC ratio sits near 0.028, relatively low.

**Key levels:** Support at $2,006–$2,050, with $2,000 the psychological floor the bulls must defend — a break risks an accelerated slide. Resistance at $2,083–$2,126; reclaiming the $2,100–$2,150 zone is needed to confirm stabilisation. **Linkages:** Like Bitcoin, Ethereum's path depends heavily on overall risk appetite and the dollar, with little chance of an independent move for now.

## Crude Oil: Geopolitical Premium Returns, EIA in Focus Tonight

Brent traded near $92.3 and WTI near $86.5 on Wednesday, both up about 1% from two-month lows. Tuesday had been brutal: Brent settled at $91.49 (−1.2%) and WTI at $86.04 (−0.9%), their lowest since 31 August, after President Trump said the war in Iran was "over", easing supply-disruption fears. The mood flipped on Wednesday as fresh attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz coincided with Iran's security chief saying not a single particle of enriched uranium would leave the country.

**Supply and demand:** Goldman Sachs recently raised its December Brent forecast to $105 from $90 and WTI to $94 from $81, citing rising risks to global supply. Industry inventory data (API) sent mixed signals, so the market is waiting for tonight's official EIA release for confirmation.

**Key levels:** Brent support $91.50, resistance $92.80, then $94 on a break. WTI support $86.00, resistance $87.40. **Triggers:** A large EIA inventory draw plus further Hormuz escalation would extend the rebound; renewed signs of de-escalation would likely see oil give back gains and retest the two-month lows.

## Today's Calendar and Risks (Beijing Time)

- **11 Nov (today):** US Veterans Day — bond market closed, no major US data; German CPI came in line and is already digested.
- **~23:30, 11 Nov:** US EIA weekly crude inventories — the key near-term window for oil volatility.
- **15:00, 12 Nov:** UK Q3 GDP, first estimate (consensus +0.7%, previous +0.5%), plus September monthly GDP and India October CPI — the sterling volatility window.
- **21:30, 12 Nov:** US initial jobless claims (consensus ~195K, previous 189K).
- **01:00, 13 Nov:** US 30-year Treasury auction ($25bn) — watch the bid-to-cover for its effect on long-end yields.
- **21:30, 13 Nov:** US October PPI (consensus +0.4%, previous +1.3%), core PPI consensus +0.7% — the week's final inflation checkpoint, likely to set the next direction for gold and the dollar; also due that day are the second estimate of euro-area Q3 GDP and the IEA's monthly Oil Market Report.

**Windows to watch most closely:** tonight around the EIA release (oil), Thursday afternoon for UK GDP (sterling), and Friday evening for US PPI (gold, the dollar and the broader market).

## Disclaimer

This analysis is for information only and does not constitute investment advice. Markets involve risk; trade with care. Prices and data are drawn from public market sources as of around 19:30 Beijing time on 11 November 2026; quotes may differ slightly by source and broker.

*Sources: Orbex, XAUUSD Global, Reuters, FXStreet, RoboForex, KuCoin, The Hindu BusinessLine, CME FedWatch, ONS public release calendar.*